Wind shear and dry air remain anchored over a large part of the Atlantic Basin, which will make tropical genesis difficult.
NEW ORLEANS — We are tracking a tropical wave (Invest 95L) way out in the middle of the Atlantic between Africa and the Windward Islands. It is getting better organized and could become a tropical depression in the next day or two as it moves to the west. However, it will have unfavorable conditions to develop by the end of the week as it runs into stronger wind shear by the Windward islands.
Elsewhere…the rest of the tropics are quiet.
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HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST TO BECOME “EXTREMELY ACTIVE”
NOAA released their August hurricane season forecast update and calls for an ‘Extremely Active’ season. The forecast calls for 19-25 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 major. These numbers already include the nine named storms and two hurricanes.
The reasons for the extremely active season:
• Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean
• Enhanced West African Monsoon (rainy) season – causes tropical waves
• Possible La Nina forming in the months ahead
• Reduced wind shear over the Atlantic Basin – allows storms to develop
Now is the time to be prepared. Typically, the season becomes more active in the next few weeks with the peak on September 10th.
The expert forecasters at Colorado State have issued their August update on the 2020 hurricane season. Their forecast now calls for 24 named storms (including the nine already), 12 hurricanes (including the two already) and five major hurricanes.
That’s an increase of four named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane.
Should there be 24 named storms, they would run out of names and have to go to the Greek alphabet, like they did in 2005.