Little Change in TD 22, likely to become Wilfred Friday

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The storm is expected to meander in the Gulf of Mexico for several days. A cold front should block it from coming north, for at least a week’s time.

NEW ORLEANS —

Eye on the Tropics:

TD22 is likely to become Wilfred, our last name on the official list.

An upper trough over Texas and Mexico will prevent the storm from exploding is strength as much of the moisture is being drawn away and toward the northern Gulf coast. this will also bring the storm slowly northward. By the weekend, an upper ridge over the SE US will steer the storm westward and toward the coast of Mexico and Texas. By early next week, weak troughing over Texas could turn the storm back NE and toward the north-central Gulf coast. Obviously this is FAR too early in the forecast and development stages of the storm to put any faith in. 

Models do very little in terms of a forward motion, with a general track nearly stationary or westward toward Mexico or Texas. The associated moisture will be surging northward and the GFS hints at some of that circulation moving toward us.

However, with a front to our south by this weekend, the storm would be deflected away.

The Euro indicated little motion into early next week before finally getting picked up by an upper trough and move in our direction late next week. It is certainly too soon to take either of these as gospel and it will continue to be monitored. Just enjoy the cooler and less humid air for this weekend.

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